Swing voters split on Trump and economy
A year of focus groups reveals how Biden-to-Trump switchers are reassessing their support in key battlegrounds.
By Austin Reed ·
Voters in swing states who shifted their loyalty from Joe Biden in 2020 to Donald Trump in 2024 are now reconsidering their political alignment. Throughout 2026, these individuals have participated in monthly online focus groups that offer a close look at their shifting views on the presidency and the national economy.
The Swing Voter Project, which is run by messaging firm Engagious and market research recruiter Nelson Recruiting, has hosted these sessions with NPR as a partner. The group consists specifically of voters who supported Biden before switching to Trump. Their recent reflections indicate that their enthusiasm for the current administration has cooled faster than many political analysts anticipated.
Participants in the study have drawn a direct connection between specific presidential decisions and their personal financial outlook. They argue that recent policy moves have directly impacted their perception of the economy. This link between executive action and household finances remains a central theme in their discussions.
However, the data suggests that the alternative political option is not widely embraced either. The voters expressed limited enthusiasm for the Democratic platform, indicating a lack of strong preference for either major party. This ambivalence creates a difficult environment for both sides as they campaign for undecided voters in the coming weeks.
A notable trend emerged regarding economic policy. Voters from both the left and right sides of the political spectrum appear to be converging on a preference for economic populism. This shared stance suggests that traditional party lines may be less relevant to these voters than direct material benefits.
Technology remains a source of anxiety for this demographic. There is widespread concern about the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and the construction of new data centers. These infrastructure projects have become a focal point for discussions about the future of work and local energy costs.
