Senate math gets complicated as Democrats gain ground
Polls show Democrats holding favored positions in five states they are not expected to win, while Republicans still hold targets in New England.
By Austin Reed ·
Five Senate races in states President Trump won by double digits in 2024 are currently rated Toss Ups by the Cook Political Report. The competitive field includes Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas. Democrats need to flip a net of four seats held by Republicans to take control of the chamber.
The shift reflects a broader change in the political environment. North Carolina, where Trump won by three points, is now a Likely Democrat race. Georgia, once a top Republican target, is now a Likely Democrat hold. Even South Carolina, where Trump won by 18 points, is leaning Republican but remains contested.
Kirsten Gillibrand, chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, described the party as energized. She noted that candidates are running in deep red and purple areas and winning. Conversely, Bernadette Breslin, national press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, called the Democratic surge a fever pitch. She referenced a controversy in Alaska involving the recruitment of the Democratic candidate, Mary Peltola, and the incumbent Republican, Dan Sullivan.
In Michigan, the open seat is a Toss Up. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces a challenge from former Rep. Mike Rogers, who has adopted a more MAGA-aligned stance. In Ohio, challenger Sherrod Brown is competing against incumbent John Husted. Husted has received support from Trump, who commented on his physique in recent weeks.
Texas presents a unique case where Democrats have not won statewide since 1994. State Rep. James Talarico has led in almost every poll against Attorney General Ken Paxton. More than $500 million has been spent on the race since the primary, with Republicans contributing more than $300 million of that total.
Republicans still have targets in states won by Kamala Harris in 2024. New Hampshire is a Lean Democrat race for Rep. Chris Pappas. Minnesota is also a Lean Democrat race for Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. In Maine, incumbent Sen. Susan Collins is in a Toss Up against Troy Jackson.
The final outcome may depend on Republican turnout. Low GOP participation could allow Democrats to pick up six or seven seats. High turnout could limit their gains to one or two seats.
