Coalition Math: Eisenkot holds firm on mandatory service as Liberman shifts stance

Gadi Eisenkot reaffirmed his demand for mandatory national service for all Israelis on Friday, a position that stands in direct conflict with the ultra-Orthodox parties he may need to attract to form a viable government. The Yashar party leader stated that any faction joining his proposed national emergency government must accept four core principles, including the conscription of all citizens whether into military, national, or civilian roles.

This stance follows comments made by Avigdor Liberman, the head of Yisrael Beytenu, who indicated he was prepared to accept painful compromises regarding Haredi enlistment. Liberman expressed a desire to avoid another election by forming a coalition that excludes Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, even if it required sitting with religious parties that have historically opposed drafting their community's youth.

Eisenkot outlined his four requirements in a post on X, describing Israel as being in a state of genuine and tangible emergency. The principles include recognizing the state as Jewish and democratic, accepting the values of the Declaration of Independence, enforcing universal service to strengthen the IDF, and acknowledging Hamas as a terrorist organization. Notably, Eisenkot used the word dismantling rather than destruction when referring to Hamas power, a linguistic shift that may make the platform more palatable to potential partners.

The four Jewish-led opposition parties currently hold 48 seats in the 120-member Knesset. This bloc, consisting of Yashar with 21 seats, B’Yachad with 12, The Democrats with eight, and Yisrael Beytenu with seven, lacks the majority needed to govern alone. The traditional right-wing and religious bloc led by Netanyahu holds 53 seats, while the Arab-led Ra’am and Joint List parties hold a combined 19 seats.

President Isaac Herzog is set to assign the mandate to form a government on Sunday. According to Herzog, factions representing 67 lawmakers recommended Eisenkot for the role, compared to 46 for Netanyahu. The President noted that while these recommendations are influential, Israeli law requires him to choose the candidate he believes has the best chance of building a cabinet. He plans to hold further talks with party leaders before making his decision.

Eisenkot argued that the cost of Netanyahu remaining in power has become starkly apparent, particularly regarding the prime minister's handling of relations with the United States and his calls against ratifying election results. The Yashar leader described the situation of a caretaker prime minister directing security agencies with only minority support as dangerous and urged for a swift transition of power.

Liberman’s shift in posture opens a potential path for Eisenkot to secure the additional seats required for a majority. However, the coalition remains complicated by internal dynamics within the opposition. B’Yachad and Yisrael Beytenu have previously rejected forming a coalition directly with the Arab-led Ra’am party, even though Ra’am has signaled it would support an Eisenkot government from outside the coalition.

The Joint List has also backed Eisenkot for the premiership. Eisenkot’s team has engaged in extensive negotiations, spending dozens of hours in both public and private meetings over the past few days. He stated that his group has made significant progress and achieved a breakthrough in these talks, though he promised to update the public only when there is concrete news to report.

The formation process is now in its final stages, with Eisenkot aiming to swear in a new government as soon as possible. He emphasized the need for stable and unifying leadership, warning that any attempt to sabotage the process for personal reasons would be viewed as a failure to act during a time of emergency. The next critical step is the President's formal mandate assignment on Sunday, which will determine whether Eisenkot or Netanyahu attempts to build a cabinet next.