Israel’s Election Deadlock Forces Negotiations to Begin Immediately
Neither Prime Minister Netanyahu nor challenger Eisenkot holds a majority, leaving the president to select a coalition architect within days.
By Austin Reed ·
The conclusion of Israel’s parliamentary election has left the political market in a state of equilibrium, with neither major faction securing the legislative majority required to govern. The final tallies announced on Friday show that opposition parties have captured more seats than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc. However, Gadi Eisenkot, the center-right former military chief of staff and main challenger, lacks the numbers to form a government without the support of predominantly Arab parties, a coalition his allies dismissed during the campaign.
Netanyahu’s Likud party secured the highest vote share, winning 27 seats. His broader coalition, which includes right-wing, far-right, and ultra-Orthodox parties, won a combined 53 seats. The Knesset, Israel’s 120-seat parliament, requires at least 61 seats for a governing majority. The gap between the 53 seats held by Netanyahu’s allies and the 61 needed creates a structural deficit that must be bridged through negotiation or alliance.
The process of forming a new government begins in the coming days with consultations between the president and all elected party leaders. Each party will recommend a candidate to the president, who is not bound to select the leader of the largest party. Instead, the president chooses the figure deemed most capable of assembling a coalition. The selected candidate receives 28 days to secure 61 votes. The president may extend this deadline by up to 14 days. If the effort fails, a new candidate may be appointed, a process that could span weeks or months.
Eisenkot appears likely to receive the first mandate to form a government. His bloc won 48 seats. If he were to ally with the Arab-led parties, which won 19 seats, the combined total would exceed the majority threshold. However, Eisenkot and his partners have consistently ruled out governing with these parties, citing disagreements over the war in Gaza and the status of Hamas. Netanyahu faces a parallel constraint, as his traditional partners do not possess enough seats to return him to power independently.
Several pathways to a new government remain on the table. One possibility is a unity government pairing Netanyahu and Eisenkot. Reports suggest President Donald Trump favors this outcome, although he has not independently confirmed the preference. Trump endorsed Netanyahu before the election and later claimed his support influenced the results. Such a coalition could facilitate cooperation with the U.S. administration on Gaza reconstruction and Saudi normalization. However, Eisenkot has pledged not to serve under Netanyahu, and the leaders must resolve questions regarding the rotation of the prime ministerial role.
Another option is an Eisenkot government supported by Arab parties from outside the coalition. This arrangement would command over 67 seats, a comfortable majority. Yet, it contradicts campaign promises made by Eisenkot and his potential partners. A third possibility is a repeat election. President Isaac Herzog has urged leaders to avoid returning the country to the polls, noting the high voter turnout in the recent election. Netanyahu may view a second vote favorably, as Arab turnout could decline and overseas liberal voters might not return.
A fourth scenario involves defections. Netanyahu would need to attract roughly eight lawmakers from outside his bloc to reach a majority. Eisenkot would require approximately 13 defectors if he continues to exclude Arab parties. During the interim, opposition lawmakers may advance legislation to replace the Knesset speaker and establish a commission of inquiry into the events of October 7, 2023. They may also move to reverse laws that critics argue weakened democratic institutions. These actions allow the opposition to exercise legislative power while negotiations continue.
External security factors may influence these negotiations. Netanyahu stated in his election night speech that Israel must complete its mission against Iran. Eisenkot warned Netanyahu not to use security concerns for political gain. Analysts note that a renewed conflict with Iran could increase pressure for an emergency unity government. Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst on Iran, stated that Netanyahu has an incentive to renew fighting to force Eisenkot into a coalition during a period of national emergency.
