Serbia's New Leaders Delay Regional Shifts

Serbia’s new opposition government is expected to focus on internal consolidation before altering the country’s foreign policy. This approach follows the Student List’s victory on Sunday, which ended fourteen years of rule by Aleksandar Vucic and the Serbian Progressive Party. The new authorities face a turbulent transition period, with presidential elections scheduled for December. International observers are monitoring whether this political shift will lead to an immediate pivot toward the West, but regional experts suggest the process will be gradual.

Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, stated that relations with neighboring countries will not be the first item on the new agenda. He noted that the previous regime had undermined regional ties through nationalistic rhetoric. Popov argued that the new government must first address domestic issues, including a judicial system, police force, and media sector that he described as captured by democratic institutions. He said that tidying up at home would take priority over solving problems with neighbors.

Relations with Croatia remain the most complex aspect of Serbia’s regional standing. Popov described the relationship as marked by frequent sharp words, rather than being frozen. He pointed to recent mass protests in Serbia, during which Vucic accused Zagreb of organizing a color revolution. Popov explained that the previous dynamic functioned on the production of internal and external enemies. He noted that while public hostility was high, Belgrade and Zagreb often held quiet convergences on issues such as the status of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Popov highlighted that the previous government had sabotaged EU integration efforts. He stated that the European Union would not accept a country without good neighborly relations. Therefore, the new government’s task is to repair these damaged ties to revive Serbia’s hopes of joining the EU. He expressed hope that a government led by experts and civic leaders would work toward stabilizing the region.

Beyond the immediate neighborhood, global powers are closely watching Belgrade. Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King’s College London, predicted that foreign policy will transform the least under the forthcoming governmental changes. He said that many international and domestic structures shaping Serbian foreign policy will remain in place. Vuksanovic noted that Moscow never fully trusted Vucic but viewed him as the devil they knew.

Vuksanovic assessed that Russian influence would take a blow due to the end of uncritical glorification of Moscow in Vucic-controlled media. He added that intelligence cooperation would likely be downgraded, but the new government is unlikely to adopt a hawkish stance overnight. He argued that Serbian interests could continue to be served by ties with Russia, citing the country’s need for preferential gas prices and the unresolved Kosovo dispute.

Regarding Ukraine, Vuksanovic stated that Serbia will maintain its policy of not recognizing the annexation of Crimea and Donbas. He noted that a question mark hangs over ammunition deliveries, as the opposition viewed Vucic’s weapons sales to Kyiv as a cynical ploy. He predicted that the new government will not see value in joining EU sanctions or adopting a hawkish stance toward Moscow.

Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, noted that Serbia’s close relationship with Israel will not be severed. However, he said that recent controversial agreements will face scrutiny. Jaksic stated that the new government will re-examine newly concluded contracts, primarily those concerning Serbian ammunition exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment exports to Serbia. He added that Israel’s future stance toward Belgrade depends largely on the outcome of Israel’s own elections.

Jaksic emphasized that Serbia’s foreign policy will undergo a review. He suggested that the policy of sitting on multiple chairs, which he argued brought Serbia more harm than good, will be re-evaluated. He stated it is realistic to expect Belgrade to strengthen ties with the EU. Analysts agree that the international community should expect a period of intense internal reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignments.