NPR and AP rely on math and margin of error to call 2026 races

NPR will not declare a winner in the 2026 general election until the Associated Press confirms that no candidate can overtake the leader with the remaining votes.

The AP has called races since 1848, and its current method remains rooted in that long history. The organization pairs its reporters with analysts who track statewide contests, including the 35 Senate races and 36 gubernatorial contests on the ballot this year. Decision editors on the AP Decision Team sign off on every call for president, Senate, and governor, as well as significant House races.

These teams examine data far beyond simple vote totals. They analyze the incoming vote county by county and, where available, distinguish between ballots cast in person at polling places and those submitted by mail or advance in-person voting. The AP maintains constant contact with its vote count team to determine how many ballots are outstanding and how many have already been processed.

Once the AP estimates the number of uncounted ballots, staff members calculate the likelihood of a candidate winning. This assessment considers where the outstanding ballots are located, the demographic makeup of those communities, and how residents in those areas typically vote.

A race can be called before 100% of the votes are tallied. The AP states that it calls a race as soon as a clear winner can be determined. This is not a prediction or a guess. It is a declaration based on the analysis of vote results and election data. The AP will not name a race until the trailing candidates no longer have a path to victory.

NPR will not call a race based on a candidate's declaration of victory or a concession speech. The organization relies solely on the AP's data. When the AP makes a call, NPR alerts its broadcast and digital audiences and provides the information to its member stations. The AP does not project races or name apparent winners. If the margin is too close, as in the 2000 Florida contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore, the AP waits for certainty.

The AP backs its calls with transparent reporting on the research and analysis used to reach a conclusion. This explanatory journalism is a standard part of its election coverage.

Voting is underway for 435 House races, 35 Senate races, and 36 gubernatorial contests, along with thousands of state legislative seats and ballot measures. Counting may take time, and race calls will continue to determine the balance of power in the Senate and House of Representatives. NPR will cover all major race calls and provide ongoing coverage on air and online.